The pace of reductions in the cost of solar power and increases in the scale of manufacturing caught the group of scientists by surprise, leading them to revise upwards the forecast they made two years ago. At that time, Science published an article in which the scientists focused on the challenges of achieving 3–10 terawatts (TW) of solar power capacity by 2030. In a follow-up article, they now envision and come to grips with the challenges associated with ~10 terawatts (TW) of solar power being deployed worldwide by 2030 and as much as 70 TW by 2050, which would make solar the largest energy resource globally.
Alluding to the electrification of energy across entire economies and societies,
The very rapid decline in PV pricing realized to date—the price of PV has declined more than two orders of magnitude in the last 40 years—and the prospect for continued declines at both the PV module and system levels creates an opportunity for PV to serve as a central contributor to all segments of the global energy system in a cost-effective and environmentally sound manner.
—Robert Margolis
, report co-author and group manager of the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s (NREL) Washington D.C. Office in the Strategic Energy Analysis Center, told Solar Magazine.
Decline in solar energy costs, increase in manufacturing capacity catches scientists by surprise
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The confluence of several factors is fueling solar PV growth worldwide and at a pace that has surprised many, including the scientists that authored the article, Margolis explained. Prominent among them, “As the PV industry has scaled production, it has developed a dedicated supply chain for both manufacturing equipment and materials, which has brought down cost dramatically. The industry is also in a period of fierce competition, which has pushed companies to take out cost where ever they can and to push innovation to increase efficiency of PV technology as well as efficiency of their manufacturing processes,” he said in an interview.
Margolis is one of an international group of leading PV scientists assembled by the Global Alliance for Solar Energy Research Institutes (GA-SERI) who collaborated in writing the paper. GA-SERI was created by and is made up of the Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE (Germany), the National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology AIST (Japan) and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory NREL. GA-SERI’s member scientists, joined by researchers from other organizations and countries, have been discussing the opportunities and challenges associated with achieving terawatt-scale solar generation capacity since 2016.
In their updated article, the group summarizes what’s needed with regard to PV performance research, reliability, manufacturing and recycling in order to realize their updated forecast, as well the ramifications and challenges for complementary technologies, such as energy storage, power-to-gas and liquid fuels and chemicals, grid integration and electrification across multiple economic sectors.
